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TOPIC: Difference between Non-event & event risk

Difference between Non-event & event risk 1 year 1 month ago #18428

  • Ashvini K. Chhabra
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I would like to understand the difference between non-event & event risk. In PMBOK 6, examples of these 2 types are given but they are not defined .

I would also like to know whether unexpected weather changes are types of ambiguity risk or not.

Difference between Non-event & event risk 1 year 1 month ago #18438

  • James Keuning
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Event risk: Uncertain future events that may or may not occur. I'd say this includes severe weather events like floods and droughts.

Non-event risk:
Variability type - Uncertainty about some key characteristics of a planned event or activity or decision. Certain weather looks like it probably could be in this category - in terms of unseasonal conditions (of course, this is in the pmbok). Hurricane or a drought is an event risk though. But unseasonably warm or cool temperatures are variability-type non-event risk. There is no “risk” that it will warm up during the summer... we know that will happen, but if it gets hotter than any record temperature, that’s non-event variability risk. Per the pmbok, this type of risk is managed through Monte Carlo analysis, so we are limited to planning based on probabilities of outcomes. I would suggest that we are limited to Monte Carlo because there is not expert judgment that could help.

Ambiguity type: a lot like event risk, but more limited in terms of the unknown condition. So if we have to interpret a statute to implement a plan, and there is uncertainty or ambiguity in the statute, we take a risk that get it wrong, and maybe have a contingency plan for alternative interpretations. The pmbok recommends we deal with this risk through expert judgment or benchmarking. This one is not uncertainty about a planned event or activity or condition. I think that is important, but I am having a hard time articulating how.
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Difference between Non-event & event risk 1 year 1 month ago #18442

  • Ashvini K Chhabra
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Is unexpected resource unavailability also an ambiguity risk?

Difference between Non-event & event risk 7 months 1 week ago #20399

  • Carlos Mancuso
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I don't think so. If you look at the strategies that the PMBOK suggest to deal with ambiguity risks - expert external input, benchmark, incremental development, prototyping, simulation - it looks like a different kind of scenario. I think resource unavailability is a regular risk, and if you know your company history (environment), you can assign a higher or lower priority to that risk, plan a response, monitor weekly, etc.

Difference between Non-event & event risk 7 months 1 week ago #20400

  • Carlos Mancuso
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I suspect it's not unusual for ambiguity non-event risks to transform into regular, event risks. As we advance in project execution and keep monitoring risks, we probably learn more about those ambiguities and hopefuly get to the point of being able to plan a good response for them... If they don't become real issues before it, of course.
What is your experience, do you agree?
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