I agree with Jeremy that I would quickly narrow it down to #1 or #2. If you think about #1 further, however, you realize that Monte Carlo simulations are a way of statistically making predictions. So they would be a decent way of predicting the most likely way the launch would go, and the most probable path of the satellite once it was launched. But it is not "precisely tracking the position". It is a way of predicting things before they happen, but things are not guaranteed to turn out that way.
So if you eliminate 1,3, and 4, then the answer logically must be #2!